Strategy for Making Profit in Crude Oil Trading

1. Learn What Moves Crude Oil:-

Crude oil moves through perceptions of supply and demand, affected by worldwide output, as well as global economic prosperity. Oversupply and shrinking demand encourage traders to sell crude oil markets to lower ground while rising demand and declining or flat production encourage traders to bid crude oil to higher ground.

2. Understand the Crowd:-

Professional traders and hedgers dominate the energy futures markets, with industry players taking positions to offset physical exposure while hedge funds speculate on long- and short-term direction. Retail traders and investors exert less influence here than in more emotional markets, like precious metals or high beta growth stocks.

Retail’s influence rises when crude oil trends sharply, attracting capital from small players who are drawn into these markets by front-page headlines and table-pounding talking heads. The subsequent waves of greed and fear can intensify underlying trend momentum, contributing to historic climaxes and collapses that print exceptionally high volume

3. Choose Between Brent and WTI Crude Oil:-

Crude oil trades through two primary markets, West Texas Intermediate Crude and Brent Crude. WTI originates in the U.S. Permian Basin and other local sources while Brent comes from more than a dozen fields in the North Atlantic. These varieties contain different sulfur content and API gravity, with lower WTI levels commonly called light sweet crude oil. Brent has become a better indicator of worldwide pricing in recent years, although WTI in 2017 was more heavily traded in the world futures.

Pricing between these grades stayed within a narrow band for years, but that came to an end in 2010 when the two markets diverged sharply due to a rapidly changing supply versus demand environment. The rise of U.S. oil production, driven by shale and fracking technology, increased WTI output at the same time Brent drilling underwent a rapid decrease.

4. Read the Long-Term Chart:-

WTI crude oil rose after World War II, peaking in the upper $20s and entering a narrow band until the embargo in the 1970s triggered a parabolic rally to $120. It peaked late in the decade and began a tortuous decline, dropping into the teens ahead of the new millennium. Crude oil entered a new and powerful uptrend in 1999, rising to an all-time high at $157.73 in June 2008. It then dropped into a massive trading range between that level and the upper $20s, settling around $55 at the end of 2017.

5. Pick Your Venue:-

The NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contract (CL) trades in excess of 10 million contracts per month, offering superb liquidity. However, it has a relatively high risk due to the 1,000 barrel contract unit and .01 per barrel minimum price fluctuation. There are dozens of other energy-based products offered through NYMEX, with the vast majority attracting professional speculators but few private traders or investors.

The U.S. Oil Fund offers the most popular way to play crude oil through equities, posting average daily volume in excess of 20-million shares. This security tracks WTI futures but is vulnerable to contango, due to discrepancies between front month and longer-dated contracts that reduce the size of price extensions. The iPath S&P Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Trust ETN presents an alternative, with an average daily volume greater than three million shares, but is also vulnerable to similar profit-dampening effects.

Oil companies and sector funds offer diverse industry exposure, with production, exploration and oil services operations presenting different trends and opportunities. While the majority of companies track general crude oil trends, they can diverge sharply for long periods. These counter-swings often occur when equity markets are trending sharply, with rallies or selloffs triggering cross-market correlation that promotes lockstep behavior between diverse sectors.