Let’s start with football (soccer) because it’s a metaphor that is too good to ignore. All about using data without context.
Watching Newcastle vs Crystal Palace in the vain hope that Palace will do Nottingham Forest a favour and beat Newcastle. The commentator told us the xG (expected goals) says Palace should’ve been in with a shout. 2.22 vs 1.48.
But the final score? Newcastle 5, Palace 0. And no help to Forest whatsoever.
That’s a statistical headbutt to the face of raw data.
And yet, people still cling to metrics like they’re gospel. In football. In business and competitive intelligence. Everywhere.
Like most business KPIs, here’s what’s real: xG is an isolated signal. It tells you what might happen, not what actually happened. Or, more importantly, why it happened.
Let me break this down for you regarding market and competitive analysis because this same delusion by data is exactly what screws up good companies every single day.
Data ≠ Intelligence
There’s a seductive lie in modern business:
“If I just collect enough data, I’ll understand my competitors. And even more so if it
Wrong. That’s like saying, “If I stare at the xG chart long enough, I’ll know who won the game.”
It doesn’t work like that.
Raw data is inert. It doesn’t move markets. It doesn’t shift behaviour. And it doesn’t tell you what your competitor’s next move is. It doesn’t show you what your customers actually care about.
It’s not intelligence.
It’s just a bunch of dots until you connect them.
This is where so many solopreneurs, analysts, and even Fortune 500 strategy teams blow it. They collect data like hoarders—xG stats, pricing sheets, customer surveys, job postings, and web traffic.
But what’s the context? What’s the pattern? What does it mean?
Carlisle United and the Illusion of “Top 10 Metrics”
Let’s talk Carlisle. My hometown club. Top 10 xG in the league. But they are bottom of the league. That is the entire English Football League, despite having deep pockets and US owners.
That’s like a SaaS startup boasting about a high NPS and low CAC. But they lose customers every quarter and burn through cash like a casino addict.
In isolation, that “top 10” stat is meaningless.
In context, it’s dangerous. It builds false confidence. It tricks stakeholders into thinking everything’s fine when the fundamentals are collapsing.
Like fans looking at Carlisle’s xG might’ve assumed, “They’re getting unlucky.” Nah. Regardless of what the data said, they were getting outplayed, out-managed, and out-thought.
What Real Competitive Intelligence Looks Like
Real CI doesn’t stop at metrics.
It lives in nuance. It thrives on contradiction. And it sees a high xG and asks: “What’s broken under the hood?”
So if you’re tracking your competitors and your analysis sounds like this:
“They’re raising money, so they must be doing well.”
“Their SEO is strong, so they’re winning in content.”
“Their Glassdoor reviews are positive, so culture’s strong.”
Then congrats—you’ve got xG-level strategy.
Here’s what you should be doing instead:
1. Triangulate Signals
If you see a competitor hiring 10 new engineers but delaying product features, that’s a clue. Not a conclusion. Match it with customer reviews. Look at investor behaviour. Track public sentiment. Watch how sales messaging shifts over time.
2. Observe Behaviour, Not Words
Just like a player’s on-field movement tells more than their post-match interviews, a competitor’s actions are more valuable than their PR.
Are they suddenly discounting heavily?
Did their VP of Sales quietly leave?
Are partners dragging their feet?
These are the goals on the scoreboard, not just the xG chart.
3. Contextualise Every Metric
If your competitor’s traffic just exploded, ask: Is it targeted? Is it converting? Was it a one-off viral spike? Or are they building a sustainable channel?
A jump in web traffic doesn’t mean market dominance. Just like 2.22 xG doesn’t mean Crystal Palace deserved to win. It’s using data without context.
The Intelligence Cycle: Why xG Is Just Step One
The intelligence cycle has four core phases:
Direction
Collection
Analysis
Dissemination
xG is “Collection.” It’s just one slice of data.
However, intelligence only happens in step 3: Analysis.
That’s where the human brain kicks in. Where you question the data, weigh the variables, detect anomalies, and uncover truths, no dashboard will ever show you.
What the Newcastle Game Really Teaches Us
Newcastle didn’t just win 5-0. They dominated. Controlled tempo. Pressed with purpose. Took quality shots. It made Palace look like a poor team.
XG didn’t capture that domination. Why? Because xG has blind spots:
It doesn’t factor in defensive pressure.
It doesn’t measure momentum.
It doesn’t quantify game state or psychological collapse.
Business metrics are no different.
Market share stats don’t show why customers are switching.
Social media engagement doesn’t show who is engaging or what they intend to do.
Revenue growth doesn’t tell you whether it’s sustainable—or desperation-driven.
Final Take: Don’t Be an xG Analyst and using Data Without Context
Do you want to be a strategist? A real competitive operator?
Stop building dashboards. Start building judgment.
Use data, sure. But as a tool—not a crutch.
Because just like in football, business isn’t won by models and spreadsheets. It’s won by people who see what others miss. Who can watch the game and say:
“Screw the xG. I know who’s in control.”
That’s the difference between a data analyst and a strategic assassin.
Be the latter.
Octopus Competitive Intelligence Agency