The third Covid-19 wave in India, triggered by Omicron variants, has receded quickly since January 21 after reaching the top of 347, 254 cases. On February 15, for example, a total of 27,409 new cases have been reported, a decline of more than 92 percent in just about three weeks. Also, cases remain below the 100,000 mark for the consecutive ninth day This has encouraged many epidemiologists and public health experts to suggest that a pandemic show signs of the endemic stage.
How could covid 19
have shifted from a pandemic to an endemic?
There are several respiratory viruses that are introduced into the human population, swept throughout the world, and turn to endemic circulation, usually with annual winter peaks in events. Spanish flu 1918, for example, is one such disease.
Unlike pandemics, when viruses or pathogens simultaneously regarding the geographical area and a large population and trigger a wave of unpredictable diseases, at the endemic stage of this disease occurs regularly in a much smaller area in a distant pattern. Now, many scientists propose that sufficient people, especially in India, have gained protection from vaccinations and from natural infections, which means there will be fewer transmissions and far less hospitalizations and death related to Covid-19, even when the virus continues to circulate Epidemiologist DR if not, life returned to normal. In other words, it means there is no restrictive measures such as locking.
Will there be a zero-COVID scenario?
Most public health experts have the view that during the endemic phase, some people, especially those who are not vaccinated and compromised immunity can continue to be infected, sick, hospitalized and even die. But Covid-19 is likely to stop as the main health challenge of the public.
Dr. John's ommen, a public health researcher related to the George Institute of Global Health in New Delhi, said that when a very contagious agent such as SARS COV-2 was the best endemic intervention for the government to move from firefighting mode. for the system strengthening approach.
What could people and governments do in the times ahead?
Life may need to move forward with a normal approach - with a "dial up" and "dial down" approach. While maintaining covid behavior such as masking, social distance, ventilation in closed space will remain important, at least in the upcoming months, more steps and restrictions may still be needed in the area that reported a higher number of cases of Koronavirus. Dr. John confirmed that as Covid-19 was a very contagious disease, the best approach to the public was to take precautions to prevent infection; Because vaccination reduces severity, being vaccinated is the main aspect. For the government, he said, ensuring that primary healths
services are able to respond adequately will be the key, which requires investment in diagnostic capacity and health infrastructure at the sub-district level. Advanced surveillance, which includes genetic environment and supervision, is also needed.
It's impossible - but it's not completely impossible. With the last omicron variant that has swept the world already, experts say that if there is a variant of the future concern, most will be a very contagious strain. Whether it is also capable of causing serious illness or wave of fresh infections, which cannot be predicted definitively. "The big waves in the future are not likely to post omicrons because now all the remaining people are restored from previous infections or vaccinated unless a very different variant appears," said Dr. Shah.
He, however, shows that the new Covid-19 case can occur, because the existing immunity might not prevent a breakthrough of infection, but what is important now is hospitalization and treatment of severe diseases.
komal