2012 Kentucky Derby Post Positions – A Good Indication of How the Race May Run

The 2012 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 5, 2012 will be the 138th running of what is referred to as the Run for the Roses and The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports.  Along with it’s female counterpart the Kentucky Oaks, run the day before the Derby, the Run for the Roses is the oldest continuously held sporting event in the United States.  The tradition of the event, along with the opportunity for each winner, should he or she go on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, to win the coveted Triple Crown, makes the Kentucky Derby a horse racing event like no other.  Post positions for this most prestigious race, with a field maxing out at 20, are critically important.  Vital, most would say.  Randomly determined, post position is critical for the three-year old horse and jockey, and the history of the race lends strong supporting evidence for such a claim.
 

In 2008, Derby favorite Big Brown and his camp stunned the racing world when they voluntarily chose post position number 20 since no horse had ever won the Derby from that spot.  The big colt prevailed to become the the first ever to win from there, of course, but that triumph will not start a trend of owners, trainers, and jockeys hoping for a far outside draw.  The whole concept is fairly straightforward:  The starting gate is about a quarter of a mile to the first turn at Churchill Downs, so a horse that has a wide post position must turn on the jets to get into good position by the time the front of the pack reaches the first turn.  Horses that are caught wide on the turns have to run farther than if they are right on the rail, and even a fraction of a second lost running wide can be the difference, sometimes, between winning and losing the Kentucky Derby.  Getting a post in the middle would seem to be the ideal spot, as a middle post, somewhere between 6 and 13, gives a jockey more flexibility with his horse. He can try and take his horse up to the lead or near it, or he can try and establish good stalking position, which is generally defined as five or six horses back of the lead, and just outside the leader’s row off the rail.  This keeps the horse from getting trapped in traffic along the rail, with all the energy needed for a winning move but literally with nowhere to go.  An inside post position, somewhere between 1 and 5, puts a great deal of pressure on horse and jockey.  Yes, it’s a good spot to be in, but it demands a good break from the gate, and a strong run to that all-important first turn, because a slow start will get that horse hemmed in, stuck behind a wall of horses, and leave the jockey no choice but to go wide and give up ground on the outside, where there is at least free running room.
 

Historically, the post position that’s closest to the rail gives statistically the best chance to win.  Positions 1 to 5 have produced 52 winners up to and including the 2011 Derby.  If you don’t think that matters, consider that spots 6 all the way to 20 have produced a grand total of only 60.  But think about this:  post position 1 has produced just one winner of the Derby over the last 35 years, suggesting perhaps that the strategy of the way the race has been run has evolved.  
 

The bottom line?  Well, the best thing an educated, passionate fan can do is go with their gut.  Watch the prep races, consider the jockey, and monitor the track condition come Derby day.  The post position is random, so there’s no way to control that.  To win the Kentucky Derby a horse must overcome many obstacles, and a bad post position draw would just be another one among many.